Those of us who recall The Bay of Pigs, even though we were children, just by listening to the news and hearing what our parents thought on the issues, we knew that we were at risk of missiles being used. Everyone was nervous. The same feeling has now returned, the threat is more deadly than ever and neither side is bluffing.
Imagine, therefore, how the current scenario and military ‘stand off’ with Korea’s Leader, Kim Jong-un and President Trump is all the more serious now, given modern day nuclear capacities and military hardware.
President Trump is not President Kennedy, neither is Kim Jong-un Fidel Castro of Cuba (ref. Bay of Pigs). The third party of The Bay of Pigs threat was Russia, and they always seem to be the third party in world-wide issues, such as their backing of Assad over Syria.
Reverting back to the Korean issue (North Korea), it is remarkable that President Trump has sent the American Fleet to carry out manoeuvres with Japanese ships in the East China Seas, and has been rehearsing helicopter landings on not only their own ships, but those belonging to the Japanese and vice versa.
If America has the participation of Japan, (and although China has been invited to also support, so far they are merely warning North Korea not to mess with the US), to support any conventional and/or other battles, it is not only miraculous in itself but may infer quite a lot.
Why helicopters? When missiles can annihilate a country in minutes or seconds, helicopters usually have only two needs; (1) advance ‘boots on the ground’ for sabotage ahead of/instead of main game plan; (2) to evacuate civilians and/or one’s own troops at any point.
It has been reported 150,000 North Korean Troops have already been sent to protect its borders to prevent the population leaving and/or invasion from others.
Post any missiles, then of course what would be left to evacuate. Even underground cities would probably not survive as such things would no doubt be quantified in equations. Certainly, we have all seen real images of the two Japanese cities which were bombed into submission in WWII. Nobody with any mind would ever wish to see that again.
What we must consider, amongst other things, are the following issues:
Korea is about to do a sixth test of its nuclear capability which will be an indicator of its potential to attack mainland America any time it wishes whether now or in the future.
Their Leader, Kim Jong-un, is unpredictable and he and his Military Generals will know that they run the risk of the whole Country being wiped out if a full missile exchange takes place, yet they may still proceed anyway.
Does President Trump wait to see what is launched by Korea then shoot it down with no further action? Will technology be smart enough to know what kind of missile (test or weapon) had been launched?
Kim Jong-un has threatened that if anything is done to interfere with their launch that there will be perilous consequences. He has already intimated his displeasure by the presence of the American Fleet with possible suitable response from him at some point.
South Korea’s City of Seoul lies so close to North Korea that it would undoubtedly be severely jeopardised in the overall scheme of events whether conventional or nuclear battles ensue.
North Korea is probably aware that there may be plans to protect or evacuate residents from high risk areas but then again the whole of South Korea cannot be evacuated. North Korea wants to take over South Korea anyway so would no doubt take up the vacuum of land.
President Trump is unpredictable but not in the same way as the Leader of North Korea. For a start, North Korea is a country controlled by a tyrannical regime whereas President Trump was ‘democratically’ elected and gives his military generals full powers to determine strategies of the military, and explain to him why one stance or action is preferred to the other. President Trump’s business acumen also taps into strategies as both sets of expertise rely on the algorithm known as the human mindset within life, and why people will accept one ultimatum but not another – (Sun Tzu studies relate to both fields). Computer projections will provide possible outcomes and variables, though the X factor/chaos theory, cannot be quantified and remains unknown throughout.
So we have the two key Leaders both unpredictable and both capable of doing what they claim.
Kim Jong-un no doubt was responsible for his brother’s assassination earlier this year via a restricted virus through a cloth which was thrown over his face by a woman at the airport – the whole event being captured on airport CCTV. That was his message to the world as to the powers he had with the chemical or nerve agent, and it was sent whilst at the same time assassinating his brother.
He could, in principle, send that nerve agent via missile or drone and it would be another weapon available to him.
If the North Korean Leader proceeds with the current 6th missile test, and I do think he will, then I also believe some response will be given by President Trump. He cannot afford to send the American Fleet back and forth as the Japanese (and Chinese) would soon grow weary, never mind the North Koreans who would play him like a puppet.
The recent bombing of Afghanistan by President Trump most certainly sent a message in two forms also, one as a definitive action, the other, a promise he will expedite on issues that need that kind of attention.
Pre-emptive strikes must also be considered, by either side. This is not a war game as in the movie of the 1980s.
When I recall the series M.A.S.H. set against the times of the Korean War and how the doctors, nurses, soldiers and staff all spent time getting to know and help the people of South Korea, then in spare time were able to visit Seoul, and saw the poor conditions of the local inhabitants, it makes the situation even more real somehow.
There are many imprisoned in North Korea and perhaps evidence of those who gave their lives altering struggling to try and attain democracy. What of the sick, handicapped, young and old?
Whatever is to happen must be decided or enacted upon soon. There have been hints in recent times regarding various matters and no doubt they will prove to provide an efficacious fallacy in all this.
So we are not looking at Bay of Pigs II, the stakes are much higher and for all we know certain events may already be under way.
Photo (c) Hazel Speed – used by kind permision to Tuck Magazine