Would Matteo Renzi, outgoing Italian Prime Minister stage a comeback in the next election? Seems like he would give a strong fight to the right wing 5 star movement (M5S) from the trends the Western World is witnessing.
3 Major events shook the Western world in 2016:
Brexit, Trump and No to the Italian referendum
All 3 events saw a unique phenomenon – Abilene Paradox. (A group of people collectively agreeing on an outcome or course of action which is against the preferences or choices of individuals in the group).
Brexit – Immediately after Brexit voices started to be heard for the UK to continue to remain in the European Union. Tony Blair, former Prime Minister, stated the UK is supported by millions of voters who wish to stay back in Europe, or at least have both choices open until they see the final terms of the deal with Europe on the proposed exit. Also, the fear of Scotland’s second referendum looms large if the UK ends up exiting the EU.
Trump – Trump scored more delegate votes and hence was voted in power. Immediately after Trump’s victory, thousands came out on the streets with effigies burned and objects set alight.
“Not my President”, “Love Trump’s hate”, “Fuck Trump”, “Kill Trump”, “Global Warming is real”, “Hate Won” were some of the placards protestors were displaying. The dust has not settled yet, the Green Party continues to push for the recounting of votes while Trump is busy setting his shop of ministers.
No to the Italian Referendum – Although all political parties in Italy wish to bring electoral reform, responsible in some form for the country’s high debt to GDP ratio (133% – 4th highest after Japan, Greece & Lebanon), Youth unemployment (37.10% – 5th highest after South Africa, Greece, Palestine & Spain) and political uncertainty (38 Head of government in last 60 years). Currently the Five Star Movement, M5S, seems to be the only choice as it represents the anti establishment and protest vote. But the challenge with M5S is the lack of governing experience and lack of discipline. Hence sooner, rather than later, the Italians would vote for Mr. Renzi even if he is not voted into power in the forthcoming elections.
What we read above is the effect. The important question is why is it happening and what would be its outcome on political parties around the world?
The answer of Why –
We currently live in a big bad world of lies, fake news, propaganda, social media and finally the SPEED.
Nigel Farage breaking Point poster “The EU has failed us all” – AFP
Fake news on Facebook “Pope’s endorsement to Donald Trump”
More jihadi attacks likely in Europe, Europol says. (M5S has hinted for exiting the EU).
All 3 news headlines hit social media just before the event date, creating anxiety and concern for the current establishment. The speed with which news disseminated forced people to vote against, out of fear. By the time sanity prevailed, things had already turned leaving no other choice for voters but to think rationally and try and reverse the decision they had taken.
Another important aspect for voters is that in the polling booths they are alone but are under the constant influence of social media – wechat, snapchat, whatsapp, facebook, twitter, etc. Although they are voting alone and not answerable to anybody, there is still a strong urge to be socially acceptable and conform to the social media groups they are part of and hence taking the anti establishment stance seems to be cool.
An industrial middle aged worker’s wife in Indiana whose husband lost work in the last few years wouldn’t vote for Hillary Clinton even if she wished as collective intelligence makes the Obama administration and hence Hillary responsible for her husband’s job loss, Trump bringing the false cult of hope and prosperity again.
Finally, the impact on political parties –
Across the world its politicians are known for their U turns and not fulfilling election promises. Now the time has come when voters will be even more fickle minded and can trigger coups quite promptly overthrowing establishments and governments. The same can be witnessed in the large number of countries embracing multi party coalitions, making the political system even more fragile.
It’s high time World Leaders start thinking of the Masses
as even classes will NOT give them enough champagne in their glasses.