Reuters photo
By
Imad Zafar
The writing is on the wall. Nawaz Sharif has been badly injured through Pakistan’s Joint Investigation Team. It is almost game over for him and after reading the JIT report one can easily understand that Sharif is being brought to a dead end.
Sharif knows that the men in khakis will never let him or his daughter Maryam Nawaz live another day. He knows it is a battle of survival and that is why he has decided to take the fight to the logical conclusion. This JIT report will be challenged in the Supreme Court and keeping in view the mood of said Court it can easily be predicted they will either reject the plea on maintainability grounds or, after listening to Sharif’s lawyers, will uphold the JIT report. This means Sharif will be disqualified by the courts and will be further interrogated by the NAB.
Sharif knows that disqualification from the Supreme Court will earn him the sympathy of his voters in Punjab. He was disqualified by the same courts during the Musharraf era but not only was he able to successfully win the case against his disqualification, he also successfully won the sympathy of his vote bank. Sharif right now badly wants a court decision against him. This will help in strengthening his narrative of being victimized. He can in fact even boycott the proceedings of the court or use the option of not appearing before the court like he did when Musharraf installed puppet judges. This will put the whole system at risk and khakis will have no option but to intervene and impose martial law.
Sharif knows he has nothing to lose now as the damage has already been done and it is evident that he has to go. But knowing Sharif’s nature he will not go alone, instead preferring a coup against him so he can be left with a window to comeback. Khakis know if they come from the front and impose martial law it will be like giving a new lease of life to Sharif. They would like to make a deal with Sharif like General Kakar did in the 90s. He convinced Sharif to resign and in return Sharif got his man, Ishaq Khan‘s resignation (the then President of Pakistan).
Sharif’s safe bet now is to call a parliament joint session and get a vote of confidence from them. If Sharif can get this, which he is capable of, then there will be no option left for the men in khakis but to dissolve assemblies. Zardari, chief of the Pakistan’s Peoples Party (PPP), in this situation holds the trump card if he decides to support Nawaz Sharif in parliament then the khakis will find them in a position for the first time where they will be confronted tactically by the democratic forces.
Sharif has the option of bringing the conspiracy and conspirators out in public and this is the option he needs to utilize, an address to the nation in which he clearly names the culprits and puts it straight to the nation to choose democracy or get ready for the same old drama of martial law and a technocrat government. Whatever Sharif chooses he needs to act fast. He surely needs to be more aggressive now.
On the other hand the establishment is going for an all time kill. Tahir-ul-Qadri is being called yet again to accompany Mr Khan to stage street agitations against Sharif’s government. Musharraf will soon join the PTI and this will make them another Q league, B team of establishment. This time the establishment will not allow elections as no elections can throw Sharif out of power. A national government will be formed and after a year or two, a presidential electoral system will be introduced to get Mr Khan or Musharraf at the helm of affairs. Knowing this conspiracy, major political parties like JUI (F) and the PPP will not go against Sharif too far s they know they too will be the losers at the end if Sharif is overthrown.
The game is on, khakis are interested in a technocrat setup and want to get rid of the Sharifs. Mr Khan is interested in a presidential system of elections and only a technocrat setup can do it for him. Sharif is fighting for his survival and if at any time he provokes the Punjab and Baloch cards, things will get out of control from everybody’s control. Mehmood Achakzai and Dr Malik in Balochistan can bring hundreds of thousands to the roads and, keeping in view the situation of Balochistan, any agitation will prove a catastrophe.
Pakistan cannot afford a situation like Libya or Egypt. An intervention from Washington at some point of time is evident as all the power players are going for the kill. Washington’s back door diplomacy can at least make it possible that the democratic system is not derailed. A democracy that is so weak in Pakistan that even a retired general can bring it down. A country where democracy has never been given an opportunity to flourish, every time a civilian leader is sworn in he has to take the dictation of the khakis.
Khakis decide the so called “vague national interest” and they have hegemony over the country’s internal and external policy. While they eat up most of the budget in the name of defence, they also run the biggest business empire of the country. Defence housing authority, Askari cement, Fauji cornflakes, Askari bank, Fauji fertilizers are the direct investments and there are various indirect investments as well. The nexus of military and judiciary since the birth of Pakistan has always been successful in manipulating the power chessboard and hijacking the people’s mandate. The so called independent Judiciary cannot dare take up missing persons cases, Musharraf’s trial of suspending the Constitution and arresting judges remains unheard, corruption of the generals of army is never considered as a sin, Admiral Mansoor Adnan Kyani, the brother of general retired Kyani, and others remains out of the reach of any law. The Kargil fiasco culprits and Abbotabad incident are not considered worthy of time by the judiciary, fearing that the actual “Godfathers” turn against them. So the politicians remain the scapegoat and a soft target.
In the history of the country’s 70 years not even a single prime minister has been able to complete five years of a constitutional term. This fact says a lot about who runs the country and who actually calls the shots. The common people in Pakistan buy the propaganda of accountability every time because they have been brainwashed not to question the authority and hegemony of the khakis. So with generation after generation the common man buys this propaganda and helps the anti-democratic forces gain more ground. Einstein once said that insanity is doing the same thing in the same manner with the hope of getting a different result. As per Einstein’s quote the anti-democratic forces, the political parties and the people who buy propaganda are insane and live in a fool’s paradise. From ‘Go Bhutto Go‘ to ‘Go Nawaz Go‘ nothing has changed, only the anti-democratic forces have benefited.
Sharif may be ousted or maybe he will survive, history will better judge the outcome of this battle between Sharif and the military establishment. But history will always laugh upon the society who preferred to live in the state of collective denial and who again and again bought the propaganda of accountability without even realizing that actually they themselves are responsible for not letting the country move towards the journey of progress. Let’s say ‘Go Nawaz Go‘ to satisfy our ego and inferiority complexes but for sure Nawaz going home will not bring electricity to our houses nor will it give the set of skills and intellect to us to progress individually and collectively.
A country with millions of unskilled and visionless people and that spends most of the budget on weapons can never progress until it changes its priorities and learns to live in the modern age rather than living in the stoneage. A society that refuses to work hard and is collectively corrupt and always looks for a scape goat eventually deserves what it is getting till now. So let’s say ‘Go Nawaz Go‘ and put the blame of all our individual and collective failures on him.
Imad Zafar
Imad Zafar is a journalist based in Lahore. He is a regular Columnist/Commentator in newspapers. He is associated with TV channels, radio, newspapers, news agencies, political, policies and media related think tanks.
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